On the surface, there is a lot about this Marvell-Lumentum deal that does not make sense. But if you look just a little deeper, there are points where the reasons actually become clear.
I think NVIDIA is deeply involved in this deal. And I believe this deal is a strong signal that the real optics war is now starting.
The figure below is the NVIDIA Marvell-Lumentum scenario as I see it.
The spots marked S1 to S4 on the map show where each of the four scenarios plays out, assuming NVIDIA set up this play.
These are all my guesses, but I think this is a good chance to check, one by one, the reasons for this deal that you cannot see from the surface.
Contents
Scenario 1. NVIDIA wanted to buy Lumentum
Scenario 2. Google TPU gets a second full-stack supplier besides Broadcom
Scenario 3. Custom XPU scale-up may move to NVLink
Scenario 4. The last piece of NVIDIA’s NVHBM
The order in which the four scenarios show up
This article is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. NFA / DYOR.
Scenario 1. NVIDIA wanted to buy Lumentum
I think NVIDIA wanted Lumentum very badly.