I have been analyzing Marvell closely since the beginning of this year and have shared a positive view across several articles.
To start with the conclusion, I remain very positive on Marvell.
This piece looks in detail at how far the five checkpoints from Part 2 have been validated, which parts can still remain as upside for the stock, and where the valuation stands. For readers who want a fuller picture of the company itself, the earlier articles below are the place to start.
Disclaimer
This note is a personal research piece written for information and industry analysis. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The author may hold positions in the securities discussed and may transact in them in the future. Revenue estimates, valuation, scenarios, and architecture interpretations that are not attributed to company guidance or public disclosure are the author’s judgment and may differ from actual outcomes. The system architecture read-through connecting NVIDIA, SK hynix, and Marvell does not imply any disclosed three-party co-development agreement.
1. Part 2 checkpoints: four of five passed
Part 2 laid out five checkpoints for the May 27 print. Four have passed and one is partly confirmed. The largest change is that the Interconnect earnings contribution arrived faster than expected.
Part 2 update
The upside case at the time centered on next-generation Custom Silicon ASP. In practice the FY27 earnings revision came from Interconnect first. The larger Custom growth contribution remains ahead in FY28.
2. FY27 = Interconnect, FY28 = Custom
Marvell FY26 revenue was $8.195B.
The current company outlook is roughly $11.5B for FY27 and roughly $16.5B for FY28. Incremental revenue is about $3.3B in FY27 and a further $5.0B in FY28.
The FY27 Data Center growth guide is about 50% and the Interconnect guide is above 70%. The Q1 investor presentation put Custom growth above 20% in FY27 and above 2x in FY28. FY27 earnings leverage sits with Interconnect, while the FY28 growth mix shifts toward Custom.
