Introduction
Two weeks ago I wrote the Optical Investment Map for people who are just starting to invest in the optical space. With valuations already stretched at this point, how should you approach optical investing? That was the guiding question behind the piece.
The stock market has been moving extremely fast lately. In the two weeks since I posted the article, a lot has happened. So in this piece I’ve gone back and reinforced which investment theses held up and which parts were impossible to predict.
Damnang's Optical Investment Map v1.0
These days the market is drowning in words like optical, silicon photonics, and CPO. But most investors know the keywords without actually seeing the full picture of the value chain behind them.
A Rapidly Shifting Optical Investment Landscape
Two weeks ago I published the 22-company vertical integration matrix for the optical stack. Seven layers, six integration archetypes, and one central thesis.
Vertical integration depth and stock returns move in an inverse relationship.
4-position-deep names like Sumitomo, Nokia, and Cisco averaged +78%, while some 2-position pure-plays ran +900% to +1,700%. Conglomerate discount, size beta, lack of a discovery premium, and cycle timing all stacked up, creating a paradox where the deepest integration produced the lowest returns.
That was the core of v1.0. Group the 22 companies into six integration archetypes, lay out one-year returns side by side, and the pattern was unmistakable at the category level.
Two weeks have passed since that piece went out. The optical sector recently went through a correction and is now showing early signs of re-acceleration. At the same time, several names moved +80% to +300% in a single month. The reason for reopening the 22-company matrix at this point is clear: before the next leg up begins, you need to determine which seats will run again and which have already played out. For a precise read, I re-priced each name individually, category by category, not as averages.
Here is what the one-month returns look like when grouped by category.
Returns are based on April 30, 2026 closing prices, trailing one-month price return. For names with both ADR and local listings, the ticker used in the original article is the basis. Dividends and FX effects are excluded.
Three things jump out immediately.
First, the Downstream IC-to-Photonics group topped the board at +73% average, overtaking Upstream Natives (+46%) for the first time. At the v1.0 snapshot, Upstream Natives dominated at +855% on a one-year average. Compress the window to one month and the order flips.
Second, within the 4-pos Deep Conglomerates, Nokia was the only one that moved. Sumitomo -5%, Cisco +17%, Nokia +56%. Two peers barely budged while Nokia alone matched Downstream-tier returns.
Third, dispersion inside the Materials-Device group is extreme. IPG at +3% versus Sivers at +327%, nearly a 100x gap. Sharing an archetype does not mean moving together.
The question for this piece is simple.
Within the optical map’s 22 names, who outperformed and who didn’t? What does that divergence tell us? And so, within those 22, who do you keep holding, who do you let go, and who do you pick up fresh?
I start by checking where the v1.0 thesis held and where it broke. Then I re-sort all 22 names into four buckets: positions worth holding, positions to hold with caution, positions to trim or avoid entering, and next candidates the market hasn’t fully priced. This is the exercise of turning v1.0’s static map into an actionable decision table.