So memory pricing seems like it will presist until 2028 or so? If 3d RAM becomes viable... China is back in the game and SK goes into tough times again? But this scenario, if at all, won't be true until at least 2030 or so?
It is unlikely to be that extreme. SK hynix and Samsung are also fully committed to 3D DRAM. As you said, 3D DRAM is still at least 3 to 5 years away from where we are today, so it is better to view it from a longer term perspective.
Great piece, thanks for putting this together. I've been digging into Lam Research recently — curious how you see this playing out for them? Feels like Chinese domestic etch tools are already eating into a lot of the space Lam used to own.
Thanks for the great question. I do think Chinese domestic etch tools are becoming a real and structural threat to Lam inside China. This is no longer just a future risk. With policy support, export controls, and forced localization, companies like Naura and AMEC are gaining more opportunities to qualify tools in areas that Lam and TEL historically dominated.
That said, I would still separate China share loss from Lam’s global moat. In mature or localized process steps, Lam can absolutely lose share. But in high aspect ratio NAND, advanced DRAM, GAA, backside power, and other leading edge applications, the challenge is not just building an etch tool. It is process control, yield learning, installed base support, and deep co optimization with customers.
So my view is.... China is a real headwind for Lam, not something to dismiss. But I would be careful about extrapolating China localization into a collapse of Lam’s global competitiveness. The pressure is real, but the moat is not gone overnight.
So memory pricing seems like it will presist until 2028 or so? If 3d RAM becomes viable... China is back in the game and SK goes into tough times again? But this scenario, if at all, won't be true until at least 2030 or so?
It is unlikely to be that extreme. SK hynix and Samsung are also fully committed to 3D DRAM. As you said, 3D DRAM is still at least 3 to 5 years away from where we are today, so it is better to view it from a longer term perspective.
Substack needs a comment translate option. Thanks for the nice write up Damnang!
I think so haha, I already request to Substack team, but not sure they will do it. Anyway, thanks for reading!
좋은 글 감사합니다..!
중국이 HARC ETCH도 자립하고 있었군요.. 장비사들까지 같이 역량을 키우는게 무섭습니다.
중국이 실제로 가장 기대하는 분야가 이 장비쪽이라고 하더라구요. 앞으로 계속 지켜봐야 할 것 같습니다
3D DRAM still highly depends on the help of EUV , not merely on stacking technology. Both can lead to a leading edge.
Great piece, thanks for putting this together. I've been digging into Lam Research recently — curious how you see this playing out for them? Feels like Chinese domestic etch tools are already eating into a lot of the space Lam used to own.
@Damnang - I am also curious on this question regarding Lam Research as well...
Thanks for the great question. I do think Chinese domestic etch tools are becoming a real and structural threat to Lam inside China. This is no longer just a future risk. With policy support, export controls, and forced localization, companies like Naura and AMEC are gaining more opportunities to qualify tools in areas that Lam and TEL historically dominated.
That said, I would still separate China share loss from Lam’s global moat. In mature or localized process steps, Lam can absolutely lose share. But in high aspect ratio NAND, advanced DRAM, GAA, backside power, and other leading edge applications, the challenge is not just building an etch tool. It is process control, yield learning, installed base support, and deep co optimization with customers.
So my view is.... China is a real headwind for Lam, not something to dismiss. But I would be careful about extrapolating China localization into a collapse of Lam’s global competitiveness. The pressure is real, but the moat is not gone overnight.